Estoy poniendo este artículo aquí, no tanto por el efecto que tendrá la recesión de EU en Europa, sino como comparación con lo que sucederá en México. Europa sufrirá efectos graves, por la exposición de sus bancos a las inversiones tóxicas de hipotecas. Pero el problema de México es que, aún si sus bancos estuvieran limpios de este problema (que no lo están, puesto que sólo son sucursales de bancos americanos y europeos), el 90% de su economía depende de EU. Y lo único que ha dicho el "gobierno" mexicano es que a nuestra economía sólo le dará un "catarrito". Una declaración totalmente estúpida de el "doctor" que está a cargo de Hacienda. Lo que le espera a la economía mexicana es una situación muy grave, para la cual nada se ha hecho para tratar de amortiguar el golpe de la crisis.
Reports issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warn that the United States is entering into a recession and reject all claims that Europe will be able to avoid severe economic dislocations as a result of America?s worsening situation.
The OECD meeting in Paris this week estimated that global losses from the US subprime mortgage crisis would surpass $440 billion. This was a sharp upward revision of its previous estimate of $200-300 billion.
Europe was more vulnerable than many thought to the global financial markets crisis, and would be especially so if trouble spread to the equity derivatives markets, officials said on April 15.
The OECD?s estimate of likely bank losses ranges from $350 billion to $420 billion, based on different assumptions as to the amount of distressed assets the banks will be able to recover. Assuming a 40 percent recovery rate, the OECD estimated losses in excess of $422 billion, of which $87 billion would be borne by US banks?$60 billion by commercial banks and the rest by investment banks.
These losses would ripple throughout the world. A third of the collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and other financial instruments based on US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that are tied to sub-prime markets have moved offshore, mainly to Europe, the OECD said.
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